Poll: Donald Trump Dominates Iowa Caucus by 42 Points

US President Donald Trump gestures as he speaks during a "Keep America Great" campaign ral
SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images
Hannah Knudsen

Former President Donald Trump leads the Iowa caucus by 42 points, according to the latest Emerson College Polling data.

The survey, taken among 442 Iowa Republican caucus goers, found Trump leading the Republican primary field with overwhelming majority support — 62 percent. No other candidate comes remotely close. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who formally jumped into the race on Wednesday, came in a distant second, 42 points behind, with 20 percent support.

Former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley tied for third place, having five percent support each, followed by Sen. Tim Scott with three percent. Notably, Scott formally jumped into the presidential race on Monday.

Anti-woke businessman Vivek Ramaswamy came behind, with two percent support.

Vivek Ramaswamy, chairman and co-founder of Strive Asset Management LLC, speaks during the Palmetto Family Council's Vision 24 national conservative policy forum in North Charleston, South Carolina, US, on Saturday, March 18, 2023. The forum is the prelude event to the Social Conservative Conference that will be hosted by the Heritage Foundation, Focus on the Family and Family Policy Alliance. Photographer: Sam Wolfe/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Vivek Ramaswamy, chairman and co-founder of Strive Asset Management LLC, speaks during the Palmetto Family Council’s Vision 24 national conservative policy forum in North Charleston, South Carolina, US, on Saturday, March 18, 2023 (Sam Wolfe/Bloomberg).

The remaining candidates, including former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, saw one percent support or less.

Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, noted that Trump’s lead “reflects his numbers in Emerson’s March New Hampshire primary poll, where he held a 41-point lead over DeSantis.”

“The former president’s base continues to be voters under 35: 75 percent of whom support Trump, and voters without a college degree: 70 percent support Trump. DeSantis’s support is higher among voters with a postgraduate degree, with 29 percent support, still trailing Trump’s 37 percent with this group,” Kimball added.

Notably, this survey was taken prior to DeSantis formally jumping into the presidential ring.

This illustration photo shows the live Twitter talk with Elon Musk on a background of Ron DeSantis as he announces his 2024 presidential run on his Twitter page, May 24, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. Republican Ron DeSantis kicked off his 2024 presidential campaign May 24, 2023 with a live event opposite Twitter boss Elon Musk that descended into farce as it was beset by technical bugs. (Photo by Chris DELMAS / AFP) (Photo by CHRIS DELMAS/AFP via Getty Images)

This illustration photo shows the live Twitter talk with Elon Musk on a background of Ron DeSantis as he announces his 2024 presidential run on his Twitter page on May 24, 2023 (CHRIS DELMAS/AFP via Getty Images).

The poll also examined potential 2024 general election matchups and found Trump leading President Joe Biden by 11 points, or 49 percent to Biden’s 38 percent. It also showed DeSantis leading Biden but by a lesser amount — 45 percent to Biden’s 38 percent.

The full survey’s results were taken May 19-22, 2023, among 1,064 registered voters. It has a +/- 2.9 percent margin of error:

The Iowa survey comes ahead of DeSantis’s planned blitz of the state, as he is slated to visit the Hawkeye State next week, beginning his “campaign kickoff” in Des Moines on Tuesday.

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